Monthly Macro Chart Book

Macro Chart Book – August 2022

President Biden forgave up to $10,000 in student loans and carved out new income-based repayment plans for future borrowers. Inflation remained elevated, but its growth has somewhat leveled off, leading to hope that inflation has peaked. Partly in response to the Fed’s commitment to fighting inflation and the ongoing war in Ukraine, markets were subdued on the month. These and other economic topics are examined in August’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – July 2022

The U.S. entered a technical recession as real GDP declined for a second consecutive quarter. The Fed continued their tightening cycle, raising rates by 75bps to 2.5% and letting $2B run off their balance sheet. Despite this, equities were markedly higher. These and other economic topics are examined in July’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – June 2022

Equities entered a bear market on recession and inflation concerns. The Atlanta Fed currently predicts a second consecutive quarter of negative real growth. The Fed raised rates to 1.75% in an effort to tamp down inflation, and seem committed to continue tightening even if the country moves into a recession. Futures markets are pricing in a year end rate of  3.75%. These and other economic topics are examined in June’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – May 2022

Producer prices have risen over 11% in the last twelve months, with consumer prices rising over 8%. Partly in response to recession concerns and Fed policy, there has been a broad “risk-off” sentiment that has pushed just about every asset class (besides energy) deep into negative territory YTD. These and other economic topics are examined in May’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – April 2022

GDP fell by 1.4% in Q1 2022 largely in response to an all-time high trade deficit and inflation approaching 10%. To combat inflation, the Fed has begun a tightening cycle, contributing to the worst start to the year in equities in recent memory. These and other economic topics are examined in April’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – March 2022

The Fed was forced to raise rates as inflation continued its assault on consumers. Commodities were once again the top performing asset class as oil climbed to over $120/barrel. As borrowing costs increased, the monthly trade balance reached an all-time low. These and other economic topics are examined in March’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – February 2022

The Russian invasion of Ukraine spooked stocks and continued oil’s upward trend. In addition to geopolitical turmoil,  inflation has been a consistent topic on investor’s minds. The Fed will announce their interest rate policies to partly address this issue in March. These and other economic topics are examined in February’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – January 2022

Inflation and geopolitical turmoil pushed equities down to start the year. Hawkish press conferences from the Fed also acted as a headwind. The futures market expect three 25bp increases in 2022, and Powell has reiterated that tapering will take place in tandem with the rate increases. These and other economic topics are examined in January’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – December 2021

Inflation is still the dominant concern for investors as producer prices have risen almost 10% over the last twelve months. 2021 was a great year for equities as every sector in the S&P 500 was up more than 15%. Payrolls disappointed in December, though unemployment is back below 4%. These and other economic topics are examined in December’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – November 2021

Consumers got a slight reprieve from rising oil costs in November, though core inflation is well over 4%, and producer prices are increasing almost 9% YoY. The Omicron Variant spooked markets at the end of November, but there is speculation that the variant may postpone balance sheet run off or expected rate increases in 2022. These and other economic topics are examined in November’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – October 2021

Inflation continues to be a major concern, though real wages have risen for the first time in six months. Fed tapering has not spooked the market as all sectors and equity asset classes were positive in October. In the background, the trade deficit is again on investor’s radars as it reached it’s highest level ($80B) to date. These and other economic topics are examined in October’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – September 2021

Inflation continues to be a major concern as producer prices have risen over 8% over the last year. Partially in response to this, the Fed plans to reduce its purchasing schedule in November. Along with conflict over Biden’s ambitious $3.5 T spending bill, this news sparked a small pullback in the market, which, combined with a strong earnings season, put valuations at their most attractive levels in over a year. These and other economic topics are examined in September’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book

Macro Chart Book – August 2021

The August jobs report was disappointing but continued to trend in the right direction. Inflation is still a major concern after the Jackson Hole meeting left no doubt that the Fed is not considering raising rates anytime soon. Corporate profits, the stock market, and housing prices are both at all-time highs. These and other economic topics are examined in August’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

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