Monthly Macro Chart Book

Macro Chart Book – February 2024

February performance was strong for most risk-assets. Small caps outperforming large cap and growth stocks outperforming value. Budgeting forecasts put the expected deficit at over $1.5 trillion for 2024. These and other economic topics are examined in February’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – January 2024

Q4 GDP growth was 3.3% as employment trends remained strong and inflation growth slowed. The market continued it’s ascent with large caps outperforming small cap and growth stocks outperforming value. These and other economic topics are examined in January’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – December 2023

Most asset classes were positive on the year as Large Cap outperformed Small Cap and Growth outperformed Value. Inflation is still a dominant concern for consumers, but the growth in inflation has slowed as the money supply contracted and interest rate increased all through the year. These and other economic topics are examined in December’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – November 2023

The market had its best month of the year in November on expectations of future rate cuts. Most asset classes were positive on the month, with stocks, real estate, and long-term bonds all having great performance. The economy was revised upward and employment numbers also surprised to the upside.  These and other economic topics are examined in November’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – October 2023

The market continued to sell off in October following the war in Israel. Most sectors were negative on the month as investors fled to gold and short-term treasuries. Despite weak market conditions, the economy continued to improve, growing by more than 4% in real terms as inflation trended down and the unemployment rate remained below 4%. These and other economic topics are examined in October’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – September 2023

The market sold off in September as oil prices rose. A strong jobs report and continued decrease in inflation have lead to economic hopes, though the restart of student loan payments provide a natural headwind.  These and other economic topics are examined in September’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – August 2023

Powell continued to reiterate his commitment to bring inflation down to 2% in the recent Jackson Hole Summit. As the cost to borrow increases, retail spending has slowed, even as consumer confidence remains strong. These and other economic topics are examined in August’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – July 2023

Real wage growth has turned positive after the economy grew at 2.4% in Q2. Even with a robust labor market and inflation that has trended down, retail sales have fallen over the past year. With the current interest rate hikes, a focus has been on the cost of borrowing, especially as the fiscal situation at the Federal level necessitates $1 trillion in deficit spending each year. These and other economic topics are examined in July’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – June 2023

US manufacturing activities continue to contract while the service sectors continue to be resilient. The market expects a 25-bps rate hike again in July and possible another hike by the end of 2023. These and other economic topics are examined in June’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – May 2023

One-month rates breached 5% while mega cap technology and communication stocks have continued their strong performance.  An agreement was reached on the debt ceiling and the labor market remained strong, though retail sales continued to fall. These and other economic topics are examined in May’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – April 2023

Home prices have begun to meaningfully fall as rates push higher. Mega cap technology and communication stocks have made the sectors the strongest performers on the year.  The labor market remains strong as unemployment reached a fifty year low and real wage growth turned positive for the first time in two years. These and other economic topics are examined in April’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – March 2023

Following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the banking sector came under pressure, pushing financials down 10% on the month. Despite this, Powell and the Fed remained resolute, raising interest rates again and giving clear signs that the hiking cycle is not due to pause anytime soon. Investors aren’t convinced however, with Fed Fund Futures pricing in rate cuts before the end of the year. These and other economic topics are examined in March’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – February 2023

The consumer segment has remained strong, though declining manufacturing activity and a heavily inverted yield curve indicate that recession fears are not without merit. Home prices fell for a sixth straight month as buyers navigate rising rates and declining real wages. These and other economic topics are examined in February’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – January 2023

The January jobs report surpassed all expectations as some 517,000 jobs were added to the economy. The Fed again raised rates, this time by 25bps, but the market reacted positively to Powell’s statements on hopes that the rate hiking cycle will soon come to an end. These and other economic topics are examined in January’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – December 2022

Real borrowing costs are positive for the first time in years following the Fed’s continued rate hikes. Equities and bonds both had a tough end to the year as the 60/40 portfolio had it’s worst year in decades. Over last 12 months, only commodities and MLP’s were positive performers. These and other economic topics are examined in December’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – November 2022

The yield curve is heavily inverted, which, combined with a negative PMI reading, added to recession fears despite an unemployment rate of just 3.7%. After another positive month, energy stocks have been far and away the best performing sector on the year. On the back of an unflinching fed, housing prices have begun to cool off as mortgage rates crossed 7%, though the median new home was still over $450,000 in Q3. These and other economic topics are examined in November’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – September 2022

Rates continue to rise as the Fed vows to bring inflation back to 2%. Partly in response to a strong dollar, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed, and foreign countries sold U.S. Treasuries. With downward pressure on both stocks and bonds, all asset classes were deeply negative on the month. These and other economic topics are examined in September’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – August 2022

President Biden forgave up to $10,000 in student loans and carved out new income-based repayment plans for future borrowers. Inflation remained elevated, but its growth has somewhat leveled off, leading to hope that inflation has peaked. Partly in response to the Fed’s commitment to fighting inflation and the ongoing war in Ukraine, markets were subdued on the month. These and other economic topics are examined in August’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – July 2022

The U.S. entered a technical recession as real GDP declined for a second consecutive quarter. The Fed continued their tightening cycle, raising rates by 75bps to 2.5% and letting $2B run off their balance sheet. Despite this, equities were markedly higher. These and other economic topics are examined in July’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – June 2022

Equities entered a bear market on recession and inflation concerns. The Atlanta Fed currently predicts a second consecutive quarter of negative real growth. The Fed raised rates to 1.75% in an effort to tamp down inflation, and seem committed to continue tightening even if the country moves into a recession. Futures markets are pricing in a year end rate of  3.75%. These and other economic topics are examined in June’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – May 2022

Producer prices have risen over 11% in the last twelve months, with consumer prices rising over 8%. Partly in response to recession concerns and Fed policy, there has been a broad “risk-off” sentiment that has pushed just about every asset class (besides energy) deep into negative territory YTD. These and other economic topics are examined in May’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – April 2022

GDP fell by 1.4% in Q1 2022 largely in response to an all-time high trade deficit and inflation approaching 10%. To combat inflation, the Fed has begun a tightening cycle, contributing to the worst start to the year in equities in recent memory. These and other economic topics are examined in April’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – March 2022

The Fed was forced to raise rates as inflation continued its assault on consumers. Commodities were once again the top performing asset class as oil climbed to over $120/barrel. As borrowing costs increased, the monthly trade balance reached an all-time low. These and other economic topics are examined in March’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – February 2022

The Russian invasion of Ukraine spooked stocks and continued oil’s upward trend. In addition to geopolitical turmoil,  inflation has been a consistent topic on investor’s minds. The Fed will announce their interest rate policies to partly address this issue in March. These and other economic topics are examined in February’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – January 2022

Inflation and geopolitical turmoil pushed equities down to start the year. Hawkish press conferences from the Fed also acted as a headwind. The futures market expect three 25bp increases in 2022, and Powell has reiterated that tapering will take place in tandem with the rate increases. These and other economic topics are examined in January’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – December 2021

Inflation is still the dominant concern for investors as producer prices have risen almost 10% over the last twelve months. 2021 was a great year for equities as every sector in the S&P 500 was up more than 15%. Payrolls disappointed in December, though unemployment is back below 4%. These and other economic topics are examined in December’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – November 2021

Consumers got a slight reprieve from rising oil costs in November, though core inflation is well over 4%, and producer prices are increasing almost 9% YoY. The Omicron Variant spooked markets at the end of November, but there is speculation that the variant may postpone balance sheet run off or expected rate increases in 2022. These and other economic topics are examined in November’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – October 2021

Inflation continues to be a major concern, though real wages have risen for the first time in six months. Fed tapering has not spooked the market as all sectors and equity asset classes were positive in October. In the background, the trade deficit is again on investor’s radars as it reached it’s highest level ($80B) to date. These and other economic topics are examined in October’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

Macro Chart Book – September 2021

Inflation continues to be a major concern as producer prices have risen over 8% over the last year. Partially in response to this, the Fed plans to reduce its purchasing schedule in November. Along with conflict over Biden’s ambitious $3.5 T spending bill, this news sparked a small pullback in the market, which, combined with a strong earnings season, put valuations at their most attractive levels in over a year. These and other economic topics are examined in September’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book

Macro Chart Book – August 2021

The August jobs report was disappointing but continued to trend in the right direction. Inflation is still a major concern after the Jackson Hole meeting left no doubt that the Fed is not considering raising rates anytime soon. Corporate profits, the stock market, and housing prices are both at all-time highs. These and other economic topics are examined in August’s edition of Julex’s Monthly Macro Chart Book.

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