Sometimes People Just Don’t Fact-Check
Some have falsely claimed that market cycles are getting shorter
Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) relies on trending or momentum for its success. Some have falsely claimed that market cycles are getting shorter, and therefore TAA no longer has the inherent advantage that it once did. Let’s fact-check this claim in order to determine its truth or falsehood.
Which Portfolio is Lower Risk?
We care most about risk when the sky is falling
When the market is going up, we don’t care about risk. But when it’s collapsing, we do. Since 1920, there have been nine stock bear markets. Let’s compare how four hypothetical portfolios performed during these nine traumatic events.
But Has TAA Worked Better Than Bonds?
Is TAA versus bonds the right comparison?
Probably not. But to answer this question, we must first identify the all-important investment timeframe. I’m assuming here that the investor is targeting needs arriving between 5 and 20 years in the future. Therefore, their investment holding period or time horizon is 5 to 20 years.
What Happens When Interest Rates Rise?
How does TAA perform during rising/falling interest rate environments?
To answer this question, we must:
• Identify a time period to examine,
• Specify how we define rising and falling interest rate environments,
• Identify a simple transparent TAA portfolio that anyone could replicate, and
• Provide comparative passive index benchmarks.
Why Doesn’t BlackRock Offer TAA?
If TAA is so good, then why doesn’t everyone offer it?
First off, BlackRock, Nationwide, Invesco, and Fidelity all offer TAA products. Nevertheless, the investment industry widely appreciates that TAA is not commercially viable, i.e., it won’t sell well. How do we understand this seeming contradiction? As we explore this question, keep in mind the distinction between a product selling well in a commercial setting . . . and that same product being the best possible investment solution for an individual investor. The two have little if any overlap. Let’s begin.
A Pretty Good Outcome
Let’s try a thought experiment – What if . . .
What if we build a passive portfolio from the 32 asset categories shown in the graphic below using the following weighs: 30.3% US stocks, 29.3% international stocks, 5.0% US Treasury bonds, 31.5% US investment grade corporate bonds, 1.4% international bonds, 1.3% gold, and 1.2% other commodities. Over the last 102 years (ending 1/31/2021) this portfolio would have delivered 11.53% per annum. That’s pretty good.